Post-Election ACA Prognosis

Change is the order of the day and that extends to the Affordable Care Act, arguably the signature legislative mark made by the Obama Administration.  In short, the ACA as we know it has a limited lifespan.  President-Elect Trump has pledged to repeal it and replace it with something better.  Even if we knew what that something better was, which we don’t, from a practical standpoint, a wholesale repeal of the law is unlikely as it would be subject to filibuster.  As an alternative, the law could be dismantled through the revenue reconciliation process, which is filibuster proof.  That process, however, is limited to provisions in the law that are revenue related such as the individual and employer mandates, premium tax credits, the insurer tax, and other measures meant to pay for the costs of the law, which include the insurance market reforms.  Those reforms, including most notably the prohibition on pre-existing condition exclusions, are not revenue-related but they are expensive for carriers to maintain.  So the Trump Administration and Congress will need to work together to find alternatives to the coverage mandates so that the popular market reforms remain financially viable for carriers.  In short, the legislative process of fixing and/or replacing the ACA will resemble a game of Jenga and like Jenga it will require time and patience.  In the short term, those subject to the law should be keeping their heads down and following the provisions of the law currently in place, including planning for ACA reporting for applicable large employers, due early in 2017.

Employers and the brokers and other benefit advisers who serve them will need more help in this environment than they would if the ACA just continued to unfold in its current form.  This blog remains committed to helping its audience weather the coming changes.

In the meantime, you can find more detailed information on the legislative measures described above, here and here.